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☆ All the data so far is showing inflation isn't going away, and is making things tough on the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Finally, consumers are dipping into savings to fund those purchases, creating a precarious scenario, if not now then down the road. With unemployment under 4%, it shouldn't be that surprising that prices aren't" going down, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. So you might have a sticky inflation scenario." "If inflation remains higher, the Fed will be faced with the difficult choice of pushing the economy into a recession, abandoning its soft-landing scenario, or tolerating inflation higher than 2%," Sanders said. "To us, accepting higher inflation is the more prudent option."

Persons: Justin Sullivan, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, Biden, Mike Sanders, Sanders Organizations: Getty, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Nikko Securities, National Economic Council, Madison Investments Locations: San Rafael , California, U.S

☆ Gold prices slip to 2-1/2-week low as Middle East tensions ease
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Pure 1,000-gram gold bars produced by South Korea's LS-Nikko are stacked in a dealers room in Seoul on Jan. 9, 2009. Spot gold was down nearly 1% at $2,304.99 per ounce, as of 0336 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 1.2% to $2,318.80. "Investors are seeing this as an opportunity to lock in some profits after gold's recent run of good form," Waterer said. Among other precious metals, spot silver fell about 1% to $26.92 per ounce, spot platinum dropped 0.7% to $911.10, and palladium slumped 1.1% to $997.75.

Persons: Tim Waterer, Waterer, Gold Organizations: South Korea's, Nikko, KCM Locations: Seoul, Iran

☆ Don't the first Fed rate cut until December, says SMBC Nikko Securities' Joe LaVorgna
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't the first Fed rate cut until December, says SMBC Nikko Securities' Joe LaVorgnaJoe LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America U.S. chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the impact of Middle East tensions, the Fed's inflation fight, interest rate outlook, and more.

Persons: Joe LaVorgna Joe LaVorgna Organizations: Nikko Securities, Nikko Securities America U.S Locations: Nikko

☆ Hot inflation data pushes market’s rate cut expectations to September
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Three months of inflation data have brought those expectations back down to earth. "Not that you've put a pin in inflation getting to the Fed's target, but it's not happening imminently." The 2-year Treasury note , which is especially sensitive to Fed rate moves, jumped to 4.93%, an increase of nearly 0.2 percentage point. The pricing in of seven rate cuts earlier this year was completely at odds with indications from Fed officials. However, when policymakers in December raised their "dot plot" indicator to three rate cuts from two projected in September, it set off a Wall Street frenzy.

Persons: Michael M, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, you've, There's, Today's, Phillip Neuhart, Joseph LaVorgna, Schwab's Sonders, Sonders Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty, Federal, Labor, CPI, Fed, Traders, First, Bank Wealth, Dow Jones, Treasury, Nikko Securities, Atlanta Fed Locations: New York City

☆ These US restaurants and chefs are 2024 James Beard Award finalists
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Marnie Hunter | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

CNN —A New Orleans restaurant featuring a modern Senegalese tasting menu and an Ethiopia-born chef who studied psychology before turning to a culinary career are among the restaurants and chefs named as finalists for the coveted James Beard Awards. The finalists for the Restaurant and Chef Awards were announced Wednesday in Washington, DC. In the Emerging Chef category, Fariyal Abdullahi, executive chef at Hav & Mar in New York, is among the five finalists. Masako Morishita moved to Washington, DC to be a cheerleader for the Washington Commanders. Fariyal Abdullahi, executive chef at Hav & Mar in New York, is among the five finalists in the Emerging Chef category.

Persons: James Beard, Fariyal Abdullahi, Abdullahi, Chef Marcus Samuelsson’s, Masako Morishita, Andy Thomas Lee, Chef Serigne Mbaye’s, Sarah Minnick, Dean Neff, foodie, James Beard’s, “, ” Beard, Mamba, Nadia Nijimbere, Yenvy Pham, Phở, Chris Viaud, Hollis Wells Silverman, Erika Whitaker, Kelly Whitaker, Michael Rafidi, Renee Touponce, David Uygur, Dallas , TX, Scott Suchman, Justin Hamel, Janet Becerra, Ryan Fernandez, Baker, Susan Bae, Jesus Brazon, Manuel Brazon, Atsuko Fujimoto, Crystal Kass, Valentine, Anna Posey, Gemma, Lula Drake Wine, Morris, Vin, Geoff Davis, Rogelio Garcia, Auro, Maynard Llera, Kuya, Tara Monsod, Billy ” Ngo, Vinnie Cimino, Cordelia, OHJose Salazar, Sarkar, Hajime Sato, Sozai, Jenner, Tony Conte, Jesse Ito, Matt Kern, Harley Peet, Kevin Tien, Ann Ahmed, Rob Connoley, Dan Jacobs, Dan Van Rite, Christina Nguyen, Hai, Tim Nicholson, Brandon Cunningham, Ali Sabbah, Matt Vawter, Penelope Wong, Yuan Wonton, Nick Zocco, Atsushi Kono, Chris Mauricio, Charlie Mitchell, Clover, Jeremy Salamon, Conor Dennehy, Talulla, Maria Meza, David Standridge, Jake Stevens, Cara Tobin, Honey, Avery Adams, Matia, Kristi Brown, Josh Dorcak, Gregory Gourdet, Melissa Miranda, Jamie Davis, The, Rod Lassiter, Parnass Savang, James London, Chubby Fish, Robbie Robinson, Paul Smith, Valerie Chang, Hunter Evans, Jackson, Gabriel Hernandez, Carlos Portela, Rene Andrade, Jeff Chanchaleune, Ma Der, Steve, Steve Riley, Eduardo Rodriguez, Zacatlán, Emmanuel Chavez, Christopher Cullum, Cullum’s Attaboy, Tracy Malechek, Ezekiel, Birdie’s, Misti Norris, Petra, Ana Liz Pulido, Ana Liz Taqueria Organizations: CNN, Lyric Opera, Hav, Culinary Institute of America, Noma, Mar, Washington Commanders, Dakar NOLA, Texas :, James Beard Foundation, The New York Times, D.C, Albi Restaurant, Washington Post, New York Times, Nikko, SC, Comfort, Dakar, Caracas Bakery, Lula, Woodford Food & Beverage, Beverages, Social Haus, UT, New, Pacific, PR Locations: New Orleans, Ethiopia, Washington ,, Chicago, New York, Copenhagen, Washington, Perry’s, Portland , Oregon, Wilmington , North Carolina, Texas, Texas : West Texas, Marfa, Mixtli, San Antonio, Detroit , MI, Seattle, WA, Greenleaf, Ansanm, Milford, Wolfeboro, NH, The Wells, Boulder, Portland, Wilmington , NC, Albi , Washington, The, Lucia, Dallas ,, Albi, Washington , DC, Santa Fe, Marfa , TX, San Antonio , TX, Springs, , New York, NY, Pancita, Kultura, Charleston, Southern Junction, Buffalo , NY, Waitsburg, Lockhart , TX, Carmel, CA, Dorchester, MA, Dakar NOLA , New Orleans, LA, Hayward, McMinnville, Orlando, FL, Nashville, TN, Nixta , Minneapolis, MN, Shan, Bozeman, Albuquerque, NM, Long Beach , CA, Hudson, Bakery, Caracas, Doral, Miami, Phoenix, AZ, Elske, IL, Son, Raleigh , NC, Dallas , TX, Columbia, San Francisco , CA, Anaheim , Anaheim , CA, , Washington, Buffalo, Montpelier, VT, Baltimore, , New Orleans, Brownsville , TX, San Francisco ,, California, Burdell, Oakland, Calistoga, Los Angeles , CA, San Diego , CA, Kru, Sacramento, Lakes, MI, Cleveland, Mita’s, Cincinnati, Indienne, Clawson , MI, Esmé, NJ, PA, Philadelphia, Fenwick, Bas Rouge, Easton, KS, MO, Khâluna, Minneapolis, St, Louis, EsterEv, Milwaukee , WI, Hai Hai , Minneapolis, Omaha, UT, Greenough, MT, Salt Lake City, Rootstalk, Breckenridge, Denver, Urban, Sofreh, Brooklyn, Kono , New York, Harana, Accord, Clover Hill, RI, Cambridge, Dolores, Providence , RI, Leeward, Burlington, Island, MÄS, Ashland, kann, Musang, KY, NC, The Hackney, Washington , NC, Talat, Atlanta, West Columbia, Maty’s, Elvie’s, Verde Mesa, San Juan, Saffron , New Orleans, Bacanora, Oklahoma City, Henderson, NV, Mesa, Tatemó, Houston , TX, Austin , TX, Mission

☆ Recession odds are 'very high' as economy looks poised to see an unemployment wave and plunging consumer spending, chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The odds of a recession are "very high" in the US, according to Joe LaVorgna. AdvertisementThe odds of the economy tipping into a recession are "very high," as the US is poised to see a wave of unemployment and a major drop in consumer spending. Advertisement"All three of those metrics are still flashing recession," LaVorgna said. AdvertisementStrong consumer spending on goods also looks poised to drop, which could end up dragging economic growth lower, LaVorgna said. "It makes me think recession risk … still has a very high probability," he added.

Persons: Joe LaVorgna, LaVorgna, — Organizations: Service, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research, Treasury, Investor Locations: Nikko

☆ Fed Chair Powell testifying to House on Wednesday. What investors are expecting
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, during a House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., on June 21, 2023. The past several months have seen a changing dynamic between financial markets and the Fed over the pace and timing of expected interest rate cuts this year. Markets have had to adjust their collective view from a highly accommodative central bank to one that's more cautious and deliberate. Central to the question of how the Fed acts from here on out is its view on inflation and how Powell expresses that. Powell will have to synthesize the recent trends carefully as he speaks first to the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, then the Senate Banking Committee the day after.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Nathan Howard, Powell, Quincy Krosby, He's, it's, Joseph LaVorgna, Steven Ricchiuto, Sharp Organizations: Federal, Financial, Washington , D.C, Bloomberg, Getty, Capitol Hill, Fed, LPL, CME Group, Banking Committee, Nikko Securities, Big Tech, Mizuho Securities, Market Locations: Washington ,

☆ Marion Barter mystery: The conman, his lovers and the mother who vanished
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-03 | by ( Hilary Whiteman | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +22 min

At the time, Australian police dismissed her concerns, insisting that her mother, Marion Barter, had disappeared by choice, and wanted nothing to do with her family. Ric Blum told the NSW Coroner's court that he last saw Barter in June 1997, just before she left Australia. Blum told the court Cornelius had lied about their relationship, which was platonic, he said. Several years later, Ghislaine Danlois-Dubois met Blum in 2006 through an advertisement she posted in a newspaper seeking companionship. O’Sullivan concluded by reading Leydon’s own words about her mother, Marion Barter, read from her submission.

Persons: Sally Leydon, Marion, ”, Teresa O’Sullivan, Ric Blum –, conman, –, Leydon, she’d, Leydon’s, Owen, Sally, Natalia Marion Remakel, Blum, “, Willy Coppenolle, Ric Blum, Bryan Seymour, – Wouters, Willy Wouters, Frederick de Hedervary, United Kingdom –, Frederick, Diane de Hedervary, F, Monique Cornelius, Cornelius, ” Ric Blum's, Ginette Gaffney, Bowan, Frederick De Hedervary, Gaffney, Met Blum, Janet Oldenburg, Andree Flamme, Marie Landrieu, Blum belittled, Rick ”, Rich ”, ” Blum, Oldenburg, he’d, Ghislaine Danlois, Dubois, Joni, de Hedervary, didn’t, “ couldn’t, Flamme, ” Andree Flamme, ” Flamme, “ Willy, Landrieu, O’Sullivan, mispresenting, ” Ric Blum O’Sullivan, hadn’t, Fernand Remakel, Blum “, Mr, Angus Watson, ” O’Sullivan, ” Leydon, we’ve, Blum’s, Matthew White, CNN’s, ” White Organizations: Australia CNN, CNN, Police, NSW Coroner's, British Embassy, NSW Police, New, NSW, SC Locations: Brisbane, Australia, Sydney, United States, Canada, New Zealand, Europe, United Kingdom, Tunbridge Wells, Kent, England, Byron Bay, Luxembourg, Australian, New South Wales, Ballina, Tournai, Belgium, France, Paris, Dubois, Bali, Lille, Brussels, Danlois, Indonesian, Portugal, Indonesia, ”, Marion, South Korea

☆ Analysts overwhelmingly expect BOJ to scrap negative interest rates in April
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Bank of Japan headquarters is seen in Tokyo on January 30, 2017. The Bank of Japan will pull the plug on its eight-year negative interest rate policy in April, according to more than 80% of economists polled by Reuters, marking a long-awaited major shift from a global outlier central bank. The Bank of Japan will pull the plug on its eight-year negative interest rate policy in April, according to more than 80% of economists polled by Reuters, marking a long-awaited major shift from a global outlier central bank. Nearly the same proportion of economists, 76%, also expect the BOJ to scrap yield curve control at that meeting, with almost all saying ultra-loose monetary conditions will end then, just months before many major central banks are expected to start cutting rates. The BOJ is on track to end negative interest rates in coming months despite Japan's economy slipping into a recession, sources have previously told Reuters.

Persons: Yoshimasa Maruyama Organizations: Bank of Japan, The Bank of, Reuters, Bank of, Nikko Securities, Daiwa Securities, D Asset Management Locations: Tokyo, The Bank of Japan, Bank of Japan

Historically, Asian Americans have been stereotyped as more brains than brawn or treated as foreigners in U.S. sports. Growing up Asian and Black American or “Blasian” in Orange County, California, Remigio didn't feel a sense of belonging. Historically, in U.S. sports, Asian American men have been treated as outsiders and their masculinity questioned. Asian Americans are always kind of troubling and in this liminal space of a black-white binary, even in sports.”Arnaldo, who co-edited the book “Asian American Sporting Cultures,” said it makes business sense for the NFL to try to appeal to Asian American spectators. There are at least two dozen NFL players of Asian or Pacific Islander descent, according to AMAZN HQ, an online hub curating news on Asians and Asian Americans in sports.

Persons: Nikko Remigio, Travis Kelce, Taylor Swift, haven't, grandpa —, ”, Remigio, HEE, Manumalo, Troy Polamalu, Tua Tagovailoa, Muasau, Jake, “, ” Muasau, “ They’re, ” Remigio, Constancio Arnaldo Jr, ” Arnaldo, Eugene Chung, Younghoe Koo, Camryn Bynum, Bynum, Instagram, they're, Tang Organizations: Nikko, Super Bowl, Kansas City Chiefs, NFL, The League, Las Vegas, Pacific, Asian American Foundation, New York Giants, Tennessee Titans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins, University of Nevada, Sporting, Football, NBA, Major League Baseball, Korean, The Institute, Diversity, Pacific Islanders, Atlanta Falcons, South, Minnesota Vikings Locations: Las Vegas, Philippines, Kansas, Pacific, Hawaiian, Hawaii, Tua, he's, Orange County , California, Asia, Mexican American, South Korea, California, Berkeley, Phoenix, @ttangAP

☆ Japan's Aozora Bank hits near 3-year lows as bad U.S. property loans prompt loss forecast
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The bank's Tokyo-listed shares fell for a second day, tracking losses in U.S. regional lenders overnight. Aozora Bank shares hit near three-year lows Friday, as investors continued to hammer the Japanese commercial lender after it downgraded its annual outlook to a loss on bad U.S. commercial real estate loans. "U.S. real estate lending for around 10% of (its) total lending with a CET1 ratio of below 7% due to unrealized losses on securities has no precedent." Aozora's update came shortly after U.S. regional bank New York Community Bancorp announced a surprise net loss of $252 million for the fourth quarter. "However, higher losses tied to commercial real estate office exposure, increase in criticized loans tied to multi-family CRE [commercial real estate] are a reminder of ongoing credit normalization that we are likely to witness across the industry," Bank of America U.S. banking analysts wrote.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Aozora, Masahiko Sato, Sato, NYCB, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Aozora Bank, Japan's Aozora Bank, Nikkei, Equity, SMBC Nikko Securities, New, New York Community Bancorp, Signature Bank, Bank of America, Bank of America U.S Locations: Tokyo Japan, Tokyo, U.S, New York

☆ Fed meeting: Here's what to expect
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed meeting: Here's what to expectSubadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, Paul Christopher, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global market strategy, and Joe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss a timeline for Fed rate easing, U.S. economic health, and more.

Persons: Subadra, Paul Christopher, Joe Lavorgna Organizations: Societe Generale, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Nikko Securities America Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ A man is suing 27 women, claiming they posted negative reviews about him on an 'Are We Dating the Same Guy' Facebook group
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Joshua Zitser | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A man is suing 27 women over comments about him on an "Are We Dating the Same Guy" Facebook group. In his complaint, the man claimed the group caused damage to both his reputation and finances. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementA Chicago man is suing 27 women, one man, and multiple social media platforms over negative posts about dating him on an "Are We Dating the Same Guy" Facebook group. According to the complaint, "Are We Dating the Same" once self-described itself as a "Red Flag Awareness group" aimed at safeguarding women from "toxic men."

Persons: —, Nikko D'Ambrosio, D'Ambrosio, Paola Sanchez, Sanchez, Patreon Organizations: Service, Court, Northern, Northern District of, Media, Meta, Trent, Firm Locations: Northern District, Northern District of Illinois, Nikko, Chicago, Canada, D'Ambrosio

☆ Uncertain 2024 makes US companies refinance debt sooner, not later
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Matt Tracy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Doubts that debt issuance conditions will be as strong in 2024 as they are now, with markets still divided on the direction of interest rates and the economy, have also driven the interest in doing deals now. Credit spreads are underpricing recession risk, said Nate Thooft, senior portfolio manager for Manulife Investment Management. Even if companies waited for rate cuts in 2024, declines in all-in funding costs may not necessarily follow, as credit spreads could then widen, said Amol Dhargalkar, managing partner at Chatham Financial. But Natalie Trevithick, head of investment grade credit strategy at Payden & Rygel, said economic data was too strong for cuts. Some $770 billion of investment-grade rated bonds mature in 2024 and over $900 billion in both 2025 and 2026, according to data by Morgan Stanley (MS.N).

Persons: Joshua Roberts, Maureen O'Connor, Edward Marrinan, Nate Thooft, Amol Dhargalkar, Natalie Trevithick, Morgan Stanley, Steven Oh, Matt Tracy, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Davide Barbuscia, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, ICE, BMO Capital Markets, Investment, Informa Global, Treasury, Federal, Nikko Securities America, Manulife Investment Management, Chatham Financial, Deutsche Bank, PineBridge Investments, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Wells, U.S

☆ Here's what it would take for the Fed to start slashing interest rates in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"In a different cycle, when inflation hadn't spiked so much, I think the Fed would have been cutting rates already. "If the real fed funds rate continues to go higher as I expect it will, then you'd want to offset that through rate cuts. And the amount of rate cuts I think they're going to have to do is a relatively large amount." "I think there's a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesn't start cutting rates pretty soon," the head of Pershing Square Capital Management added. However, even some of the historically more dovish Fed officials aren't showing their hands on when they think cuts will come.

Persons: Valerie Plesch, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Waller, Bowman, Joseph LaVorgna, Donald Trump, Chris Marangi, Bill Ackman, Ackman, David Rubenstein, Raphael Bostic, Thomas Barkin Organizations: Eccles Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, Fed, Nikko Securities America, National Economic Council, CME Group, Stocks, Gabelli, Market, Pershing, Capital Management, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Richmond Locations: Washington , DC, Atlanta

☆ Exclusive: Bayer holds call with bond investors after raft of bad news
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Shankar Ramakrishnan | Thomson Reuters | Shankar Ramakrishnan Has Nearly Years Of Financial Journalism Experience In Writing | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The bad news prompted some bond investors to question whether Bayer should sweeten the terms of the deal or outright pull it, one of the sources said. The drug-to-pesticides group priced the investment grade bond on Thursday last week, with the deal closing on Tuesday. Bayer priced bonds with maturities between three to 30 years. It was the 10th largest investment grade bond deal by an industrial company this year and attracted more than $22 billion in orders, according to Informa Global Markets. The events were "not enough to trigger a material adverse change clause in bond documents for investors to ask to be paid back," said CreditSights' Brady.

Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Bayer, Andrew Brady, CreditSights, JP Morgan, Wells, Brady, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Ludwig Burger, Mike Erman, Paritosh Bansal, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Bayer AG, REUTERS, Bayer, Nomura Holdings, Informa Global Markets, Citigroup, Nikko Securities America, RIC, Thomson Locations: Leverkusen, Germany, Seattle

But they are going only as far as the safest bets in the junk category, bonds rated BB and B. Junk bond spreads, the additional interest rate investors demand over safe Treasury bonds, tightened sharply. The spreads of those rated BB and B, or the higher rungs of junk, had tightened 47-52 basis points last week, according to Informa Global Markets data. Four junk bond issuers – Bombardier (BBDb.TO), Venture Global LNG, Smyrna Ready Mix Concrete and InfraBuild Australia - announced bond offerings on Monday. The spotty access to bond markets does not bode well for poorly rated companies.

Persons: Rick Wilking, ”, Edward Marrinan, Peter Knapp, Winnie Cisar, bode, Morgan Stanley, Moody's, Manuel Hayes, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Paritosh Bansal, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Nikko Securities Americas, Investors, JPMorgan, Informa, CCC, Bombardier, Venture Global LNG, “, London, Insight Investment, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, Smyrna, Australia

☆ Exclusive: BOJ plans to exit from easy policy next year but needs some good fortune
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Ueda's intentions are based on interviews with six sources familiar with the BOJ's thinking, including government officials with direct interaction with the bank. "Given uncertainty over the economic outlook, the BOJ probably wants to wait at least until spring next year in normalising policy," said another source. If the yen continues to fall, that could heighten political pressure on the BOJ to exit sooner than it wants, some analysts say. The risk of sharp yen falls and an inflation overshoot may leave the BOJ with less time than it wants to exit. "The BOJ doesn't have much time left, a point governor Ueda is probably mindful of."

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Kuroda, it's, Robert Samson, Ueda hasn't, Hiromi Yamaoka, Leika Kihara, Anisha, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Japan, Kyodo, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Nikko Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, BOJ, YCC, TOKYO, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Markets are on board with the Fed's ‘higher for longer’ policy, CNBC survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

As recently as the summer, respondents had forecast rate cuts in the beginning of next year. The change can also be seen in the outlook for the fed funds rate, the central bank's benchmark for short-term lending costs. It's now forecast on average to end 2024 at 4.6%, assuming about 75 basis points of rate cuts. In June, the year-end 2024 funds rate was forecast at 3.8%, which assumed 125 basis points of cuts. Some 60% of respondents see the Fed hitting its inflation target in 2025 or sometime after that, and 19% don't believe the Fed will ever get there.

Persons: Jerome, Powell, Peter Boockvar, Robert Brusca, Troy Ludtka Organizations: CNBC, Survey, Federal Reserve, Bleakley Financial, Fed, Nikko Securities

☆ BOJ likely to lift inflation forecasts, debate tweak to yield cap
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The BOJ sets a target of around 0% for the 10-year yield under YCC. Since then, rising global bond yields and persistent inflation have put the BOJ in a tight spot with the 10-year JGB yield threatening to breach the 1% cap. The 10-year bond yield rose to a fresh decade high of 0.955% on Tuesday. Sources told Reuters last week the BOJ could debate further tweaks to YCC at the Oct. 30-31 meeting to relax its grip on the 10-year yield. The BOJ is widely expected to maintain the 0% target for the 10-year yield and that for short-term rates at -0.1%.

Persons: BOJ, Ueda, Ataru Okumura, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of, Nikkei, Nikko Securities, Reuters, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Bank of Japan, Japan

☆ The economy probably showed gangbuster growth in the third quarter. But will it last?
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

If the projection is correct, it will be the strongest output since the fourth quarter of 2021, when growth was just shy of 7%. However, policymakers, economists and markets will be focused more on forward-looking signals from an economy that repeatedly has defied expectations. For Q3, GDPNow is projecting growth of 5.4%, with more than half — 2.77 percentage points — to come from consumer spending. That expectation intensified during a brief banking industry crisis in March 2023 that the Fed expected would constrain credit enough to bring about a downturn. Central bank officials have raised rates aggressively while professing to not want to drag the economy into recession.

Persons: Spencer Platt, Dow, Joseph LaVorgna, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, LaVorgna, Steven Ricchiuto, Ricchiuto, —, Quincy Krosby, that's Organizations: Getty, Gross, Dow Jones, Commerce Department, Nikko Securities America, Federal Reserve, Fed, White, Mizuho Securities USA, Department, Treasury, LPL Locations: Manhattan, New York City, U.S

☆ The U.S. economy is extremely resilient, says economist Betsey Stevenson
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. economy is extremely resilient, says economist Betsey StevensonJoseph LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, and Betsey Stevenson, professor of economics at the University of Michigan, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss where the Federal Reserve goes from here, their thoughts on the overall economy, and more.

Persons: Betsey Stevenson Joseph LaVorgna, Betsey Stevenson Organizations: Nikko Securities America, University of Michigan, Federal

☆ BOJ's Noguchi says wage growth momentum is biggest focus for Japan economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday that the biggest focus for the Japanese economy now was to ensure that momentum for wage growth stayed in place, with a 3% rise in nominal pay to back efforts to meet the 2% inflation target. "His emphasis on wage growth probably meant the BOJ will retain its easy policy until wage hikes are firmly in place following the labour talks next March." "The biggest focus now is whether this (wage growth) momentum will be maintained or not from now on as well." Noguchi said household inflation expectations are steadily rising, but if wage growth lags behind price hikes, consumers would have no choice but to reduce their spending, as seen lately. "The BOJ's mission for the time being is to realise it (positive growth in real wages) through patient monetary easing," Noguchi said.

Persons: Asahi Noguchi, Noguchi, Yoshimasa Maruyama, Tetsushi, Chang, Ran Kim Organizations: Bank of Japan, Nikko Securities, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Niigata, Tokyo

☆ Japan warns it will take 'appropriate' steps on excessive yen falls
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Japan will take appropriate steps against excessive moves in the yen "without ruling out any options", Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Wednesday, keeping markets on alert over the chance of yen-buying intervention. Suzuki told reporters he would not comment on whether Tokyo intervened in the exchange rate market overnight to prop up the yen. Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda told reporters early on Wednesday that authorities were looking at various factors, including implied volatility, in determining whether yen moves were excessive. He declined to comment on whether the overnight yen moves were excessive. He added that Japan was acting in accordance with an agreement with its G7 and G20 partners, which includes a commitment to the stance that excessive exchange rate moves are undesirable.

Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Suzuki, Masato Kanda, that's, Kanda, Fumio Kishida, Yoshimasa Maruyama Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, Tokyo, Bank of Japan, Nikko Securities Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia

☆ Something is breaking in financial markets — Here's what's behind the sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Brendan McDermid | ReutersThat cracking sound in financial markets isn't the typical kind of break, where one asset class or another fractures and gives way. "The cost of capital is going up, companies are going to have to refinance at a higher rate." That sentiment was buttressed this week, when at least four central bank officials either endorsed hikes or indicated that higher rates would be staying in place for an extended period. Consumers, for one, are feeling the squeeze of higher rates on everything from mortgages to credit cards to personal loans. "Now, at some point, my guess is that markets will eventually get to cheap enough levels where you'll bring buyers in.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Larry McDonald, Treasurys, McDonald, It's, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, I've Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal Reserve, Treasury, LPL, Labor Department, Wall, P Bank ETF, Congressional, Treasury Department, The, White House, National Economic Council, Nikko Securities Locations: New York City, Washington, U.S

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